Robert Patman: NZ shouldn’t be afraid to call Trump out

Donald Trump is labelling his win ‘the greatest political movement of all time’. How historic is it for someone (globally) to be elected president twice non-consecutively, especially with a tumultuous background?
Like or dislike it, Donald Trump is arguably the most impactful US president during the 21st century. Elected twice as president, he now towers over the Republican party in a way that few of his predecessors managed to do. In many ways, Trump is a product of the forces unleashed in the US by the post-9/11 era. The disastrous and illegal invasion of Iraq, Islamophobia, the Global Financial Crisis of 2008/9, populism, the rise of China as a second superpower and relative US decline have created a climate in the US that was conducive to the emergence of a political leader who presented himself as ‘anti-establishment’  figure who would fix all of America’s problems.
The Republicans have gained control of the Senate, and may also secure the House – how significant are those outcomes for Trump’s presidency and the US?
This is a potentially significant outcome that worries many national and international observers. The new president says he wants to be a “dictator from day one” – he has promised, for example, radical changes such as the forced deportation of millions of undocumented migrants and shutting down the Department of Education – and it would  appear he would be less constrained by America’s constitutional system of checks and balances than many recent administrations. Trump’s Republican party will control the Senate and five members of the US’ Supreme Court are firmly oriented towards the Republican party. Political control of the House of Representatives has yet to be decided, but Trump is otherwise initially well-placed to push through his radical agenda.
What do you expect Trump’s foreign policy to look like on critical issues like Ukraine, Gaza and China?
Trump’s ‘America First’ foreign policy approach will be transactional and focused on preserving and where possible extending US dominance. If we are to believe Trump’s election campaign pledges the new president will champion a land for peace settlement in the Ukraine in which Putin’s regime retains about 20 percent of the territory it has illegally annexed in return for stopping any further encroachment on the country. With respect to Gaza, Trump has indicated he will fully support the efforts Netanyahu’s far right coalition government “to finish the job” of eliminating Hamas in Gaza. With regard to China, Trump has promised to further escalate tariffs against Chinese imports and Beijing for its part will probably retaliate in trade terms and could increase its pressure on Taiwan to test the new administration’s resolve.
What are the major implications for New Zealand of Trump’s win, and what advice would you pass on to ministers and officials as they prepare for the next four years?
Donald Trump makes no secret of his opposition to an international rules-based order and multilateral diplomacy. These have been key features of New Zealand’s foreign policy during the post-1945 era. So New Zealand, like many small and middle powers, could find a second Trump administration very challenging. The most immediate threat appears to be Trump’s promise to impose tariffs on US imports. Given that the US is the second largest market for New Zealand exports, this protectionist policy could a very negative impact on our economy. In addition, and not unrelated, it will be more difficult for the Luxon government to pursue the option of Pillar II membership of AUKUS with Trump in the White House.
My advice to ministers and officials responsible for managing New Zealand’s relations with the Trump administration would be adopt a two-track approach. On the one hand, New Zealand should work hard to strengthen relations where our interests converge. On the other hand, the National-led coalition government should not remain silent or hold back when the Trump administration takes steps that undermines our national interests. I would like to see New Zealand publicly condemn any renewed move to withdraw the US from the Paris Climate Accord, and also reaffirm its opposition to trade protectionism and vocally support institutions like the World Trade Organisation (WTO), which has been undermined during the last eight years by administrations led by Trump and Biden.
 You’ve followed the campaign – were you expecting this result? Why/why not?
I was more shocked by Trump’s second presidential win in 2024 than his victory of 2016 when he had little or no track record as a professional politician. By 2024, Trump had been impeached twice, and had incited an armed insurrection on January 6, 2021 that ultimately resulted in the death of nine people. He had been charged with 88 criminal offences and convicted on 34 of them. A jury also found him liable for sexual abuse in a civil case in Manhattan. But Trump once again demonstrated a Teflon quality in the 2024 presidential race. After all, Trump ran a campaign that was openly racist, sexist and xenophobic. Moreover, he described his political opponents as “scum”, “vermin” and the “political enemy within”. Many of his supporters believe all this was just campaign rhetoric, but I find it sobering that so many Americans placed their faith in this individual to occupy the most powerful office in the world.
What trends most strike you when looking at how different groups and demographics voted?
Exit polls indicate that Donald Trump received a substantial increase in support among Hispanic, Latino, young people without college degrees, and Arab-Americans. It would seem that Trump’s populist campaign, in which he pledged to shield US workers from global economic competition by imposing tariffs on imports, attacked ‘woke’ sentiments concerning gender and race, and depicted himself as an ‘America First’ peace candidate may have all played a part in helping to grow his share of the vote amongst these groups compared with the Kamala Harris campaign. The political irony is that two-thirds of Americans considered the US economy to be in poor shape when it is performing better than any other economy in the world.
Where to next for the Democratic Party following this significant defeat, and who do you see as the party’s future leaders?
Given the political circumstances and the relatively short-time frame Kamala Harris had available to campaign for the presidency, she performed relatively well and attracted huge crowds to her speaking events. Nevertheless, I think Harris’ political instincts sometimes let her down. Above all, she probably needed to more effectively distance herself from President Biden in order to maximise her base within the Democratic party. It is no secret that presidential contests are often about fine margins, and many Democrat-voting young people, particularly Arab-Americans, were distressed by what they saw as Biden’s partisan approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Clearly, the Democratic party establishment need to take stock after Trump’s victory and avoid making hard or fast decisions about the leadership of the party. I think it is too early to start identifying future leaders for the 2028 election contest (assuming there is one).
Robert G. Patman is an Inaugural Sesquicentennial Distinguished Chair and a specialist in international relations at the University of Otago.